From John Sykes
The first hint occurred with the silent GOP turnabout in the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall contrary to polls predicting a defeat. The second rests in the fear of race baiters. with the strange disparities. Finally, demagoguery does backfire!
Three past phenomena are the likely explanations.
The Silent Majority is defined by the Free Dictionary as “a presumed moderate majority of the citizens who are too passive to make their views known”. This group has often been attributed to Nixonian success and further characterized as not participating in noisier groups like the Tea Party or Occupy, less likely to do much but vote.
As described in ‘How The Shy Republican Could Be Masking a Landslide” The Bradley Effect:
… is a much-debated polling distortion that is easy to demonstrate but difficult to prove. The idea that when a black or minority candidate is on the ticket against a white candidate, certain voters may lie under pressure from a pollster, worried about being seen as a racist for choosing the white candidate over the minority, sounds highly plausible. The consequence, should the Bradley effect be in play, would be a skewed poll indicating that the minority candidate is in better political shape than his or her opponent.Then there’s the Shy Tory Factor. In 1992 Great Britain’s Labour Party was already celebrating a win over the Tories as late as 10 PM:
Yet the final result was a total shock -- a comfortable win for the Tories, losing a few seats, but picking up the highest total number of votes for any political party since 1951. Left-wing pundits couldn't explain what had happened.
The explanation for the gap between polls and reality was eventually named "The Shy Tory Factor." Since the ascension of Thatcher to Downing Street in 1979, the Tories had been presented as a nasty, evil party that wanted to destroy communities in their war against the miners, gut health care, and take money from the poor to give to the rich via the poll tax [i]. Does this sound familiar to any Americans at all?
While the policies of the Conservative Party were popular, the media and the screeching left had helped turn the Tory brand into a toxic one that many people didn't want to be associated with in spite of their secret support. Therefore, when polled, the shy Tories answered Labour, but voted Conservative.So, Folks, what we’ve got is a Silent Majority, often cowed by Bradley Effect race baiters, demonstrating the Shy Tory Effect by polling Democrat but secretly supporting the GOP!
God willing ……